fredag, desember 04, 2009

Ingen hvit jul i Moskva

La meg gjøre det helt klinkende klart - vær er ikke klima. Vær er kaotisk og en sesong eller en periode et gitt sted kan aldri si noe som helst om klimatiske trender. Alikevel rapporterer klimaskeptikere rutinemessig om at det er kaldere i egen bakhage og at global oppvarming derfor er en stor bløff.

Vel, det må jo da være lov å rapportere motsatte trender. En slik oppsiktsvekkende trend er at Moskva ikke nødvendigvis kan vente seg en hvit jul i år.

Fra ABC news:

The city's weather has been melting records, with a maximum temperature on Wednesday afternoon of 8.5 degrees Celsius. That's 1.4C higher than the previous record set in 1898.

And there may be more record highs on the way.

Alexey Lyakhov, the director of the city's weather bureau, has told the ABC the temperature could reach 9C on Thursday.

Usually at this time of the year, he says, the average is -6.1C.

Dette beviser i seg selv ikke en global trend. Langsiktige trender har imidlertid visse fingeravtrykk, som vi kan studere. Og disse er mer entydige. Jorden blir varmere.

2 kommentarer:

Arild sa...

Hei Helge, dette balanserer vel noe av varmen på den andre siden av jordkloden?

HOUSTON - Normally hot and humid Houston is dealing with
weather it rarely gets: snow. Snow began falling Friday morning in Houston and other parts of southeast Texas and as of late Friday afternoon had not stopped.

National Weather Service meteorologist Charles Roeseler says
it's the earliest snow in Houston's history. The previous record
for Houston was Dec. 10 in 2008 and 1944.

Snow is rare for the nation's fourth largest city. In the past
15 years, it has snowed four times, including Friday.

The National Weather Service says there have been reports from
counties southwest of Houston of accumulations of 3 to 4 inches.
There have been reports of half an inch or less in Houston with
suburbs south of the city reporting 1 to 2 inches.

AS of 4:00PM Friday there were reports of snow on Galveston Island. Earlier in the day it had been snowing as far southwest as Victoria.

Helge Samuelsen sa...

Ja, Arild.

Nettopp mitt poeng. Slike eksempler har en tendens til å balansere hverandre ut, og vi må derfor se etter langsiktige trender.